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There will be two different stages between the breakthrough of science and technology and its real transformation into an inclusive technology

2022-01-15 02:23:50 slivegogo

   When talking about the innovation and breakthrough of science and technology and the inclusive application , Xu Li said : Between the breakthrough of science and technology and its real becoming an inclusive Technology , There will be two different stages . The first stage is “ of indomitable spirit ”, The second stage is “ blot out the sky and cover up the earth ”, Artificial intelligence has the same process .
   Xu Li thinks that , All the times we have experienced in the past , Really look at , The driving force behind is technology . A corroboration is , Times are named after “ technology ”, Whether it's the steam age Power age or information age .
   Xu Li thinks that , The changes of each era will bring a big wave of increment , The discontinuous transition of productivity . But if you look closely at each era , There are two stages , The breakthrough of science and technology to the real in-depth industry . Before becoming an inclusive Technology , There will be two different stages .
   First stage , We call it “ of indomitable spirit ” The stage of . When technology can really show the changes brought to the productivity of the general public , Even in a sense, it can surpass people's ability .
   Second stage , We call it “ blot out the sky and cover up the earth ” The stage of . It is true that technology can achieve large-scale mass production , Technology can really be implemented 、 You can use . It's a small range 、 Small scenario applications , The manual vertical chain is transformed into a real large scale 、 Factory style mass production .
   Xu Li said , In fact, artificial intelligence has the same process . What is the first stage ?2010 Years ago, no one could believe that artificial intelligence was really strongly linked to industry , Academic is also . Therefore, there is no special general artificial intelligence technology . until 2010 Years later , When the traditional artificial guided intelligence becomes an intelligence that can be driven by larger scale data and computing power , Just jumped out of the human boundary .
   What is the upper limit of artificial intelligence ? If it's a person , The teacher went to teach , There must be a bottleneck there . But then intelligence without artificial guidance has the opportunity to surpass , We call it “AI Technology breaks through the red line of industry ”., Every industry must cross that line to have a qualitative change , Before that, everyone will turn a blind eye , It is a necessity .
  2013 year 、2014 year , Artificial intelligence has produced a lot of qualitative changes in the vertical industry , This will lead to a corresponding productivity change with maturity or relatively good market education and awareness , But it can't really be universal , Become a cross era technology .
   Second stage , We must enter industrialized mass production , And can reduce the price of important production factors in the times , In order to promote the development of the whole industry .
   We all know that playing go ,Alphago Of , We now guess that it has far exceeded the limits of mankind ., Suppose go is a type of work , Playing go can completely replace professional players , Chinese professional chess players 300 There are no people , According to the salary of professional chess players and the investment we use machines to play go , If it is a professional organization to run this thing , Probably need 70 Annual cost recovery .
   In any field , Go anywhere , Say that your investment can completely reduce costs and increase efficiency , Can improve the quality on a large scale , But the premise is 70 Back to this year , This is not true ., So I just said that it can reduce the cost of production factors , Is to do “ blot out the sky and cover up the earth ” The basis of .

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